Youth Unemployment and Crime: To what Extent are they linked?

Youth Unemployment and Crime: To what Extent are they linked?

The idea that unemployment contributes to crime is popular. This idea is driven by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) literature on unemployment, crime, and gang (Cramer, 2010). The idea is equally promoted by recent economic models on civil wars in developing countries (Cramer, 2010). In this essay, the aim is to examine the claim that unemployment is linked to crime and violence in order to see if the claim has any empirical backing. The essay will draw on studies conducted on this subject in different parts of the world in order to see whether this acclaimed link is truly universal or not. Both classic and recent studies will also be used to examine whether the trend is time specific or not. The essay will explore different types of crimes, including economic crimes, property crimes and violent crimes. After examining the available research evidence on this, their findings will be theoretically explained using Hirshleifer’s (1985) economic approach.

One of the research evidence on the link between unemployment and crime comes from Fougère et al. (2009) who studied this phenomenon in France. They examined the link between unemployment and both property crimes and violent crimes committed in the country between 1990 and 2000. They constructed a regional-level dataset for this with measures of crimes based on reports by the Ministry of Interior and found that unemployment and crime in France correlated positively within the aforementioned period. They also discovered that the crime rate in the country increased as the rate of unemployment increased. Their data shows that the influence was causal for different types of crimes they investigated, namely thefts, burglaries and drug offences.

The above findings support the findings of a previous study by Raphael & Winter-Ebmer (2001), which was conducted in the United States of America (USA) although differences exist with respect to the particular types of crimes investigated. They estimated the influence of unemployment rate on seven felony offences in the country after controlling state-level demographic and economic factors. They found significantly positive effects of unemployment on property crime rate which remained stable across model specifications. In fact, their estimate indicated that the decline in the rate of unemployment in the USA in the 1990s contributed to the significant decline in property crimes in the country during the period. Although Raphael & Winter-Ebmer’s (2001) findings were robust with respect to property crimes, the link between unemployment and violent crime was weak. Nevertheless, their analysis of rape shows that males’ employment prospects were weakly associated with state rape rates.

A literature review conducted by Idris (2016) on the link between unemployment and crime suggests that the two variables are well connected. Having examined the link from the works of different researchers on this, Idris (2016, p.2) concludes that ‘unemployment is a factor leading to violence – both criminality and youth participation in political violence and armed groups’. Although Idris (2016) arrives at this conclusion, he also acknowledges that many of the studies he reviewed on this subject could not provide concrete proof to back up their claims that youth unemployment is a factor in violence committed by youth. He notes that the evidence from some of the authors was weak while others show that unemployment is associated with only some forms of crime, such as petty theft. Again, he shows that some of the studies found that unemployment itself is not the primary factor determining criminality, rather a myriad of factors ranging from injustice, corruption, humiliation, discrimination, and young people’s experiences of violence stand as more important factors contributing to the criminality than unemployment. Idris (2016) drew on the Arab Spring of 2011 as a specific case to support their findings that multiple factors influence youth crime. According to him, the youth violence that erupted during this incident resulted from multiple factors, including anger by young people towards their weak governments and corrupt regimes.

Studies of gang and youth violence in different parts of the world also implicate unemployment in crimes committed in those societies. In Latin America and the Caribbean, for instance, the rate of unemployment is high (Statista, 2021). In fact, in some parts of Latin America and Caribbean, such as Venezuela and Nicaragua, unemployment rates were as high as 44.3 percent and 23.4 percent respectively in 2019 (Statista, 2021). Idris’ (2016) analysis shows that youth unemployment in this region in 2011 was about thrice higher than the rate for adults. It was found that in this region, unemployed youth easily join gangs and engage in serious violence in their respective communities (JA Worldwi